The deflator index for 2022 from the Ministry of Economic Development is one of the most important economic indicators. Thanks to him, the government will be able to make a forecast of prices, as well as analyze the purchasing power of citizens. In what areas is it most often used? And how to calculate it correctly?
What it is
An index-deflator in the economy is called an indicator that is used to make a forecast of the real cost of works, goods and services in a certain period of time. In simple terms, this is a special calculation coefficient that helps determine what the price tags will be in the near future. So, for example, knowing the deflator index for 2022 for estimates, one can assume how much the cost of a particular product or group of goods will change.
Also, the deflator index makes it possible to assess the income of citizens. Not to calculate how much they earn, but to determine how many goods and services they can buy, having the specified amount on hand.
Thanks to the presence of the deflator index, government officials can understand in which direction social policy should be directed. This means that the vulnerable categories of the population will receive proper support.
It seems that this indicator has solid pluses. However, in reality, when using it, the inflation rate is taken too low. Therefore, the actual figures showing the income of the population may not be entirely accurate.
Where is used
The deflator index is needed in almost all areas of government activity. Even the tax system cannot do without its use. But most often it is used in public procurement, construction and defense. Let's take a closer look.
Building
Here the scheme of work differs from the usual purchase of goods or services. The customer for construction, overhaul, reconstruction or modernization must calculate the cost using the design and estimate documentation. The basis for it is the estimated rationing, the standards in which are calculated taking into account the deflator index. It includes both the current period and all subsequent years in which construction or repairs will be carried out.
Government purchases
According to the procurement law, the deflator index is used when it is necessary to determine the initial maximum value of the contract. Taking into account the dynamics of price changes and industry indicators, both the customer and the contractor will establish a cost that will not be overstated or underestimated. Thanks to this, already in the process of cooperation, they will prevent excessive budget spending and claims from those who will check the work.
Defense order
The predictive deflator index in this area is needed in order to plan prices for the preparation and implementation of projects of products of defense significance. It also helps determine the cost of government orders, which are somehow related to the disposal or provision of services included in the procurement list.
Scenarios and projections
The Ministry of Economic Development has already issued an order approving the deflator index for 2022 and even for 2023. At the same time, many external and internal factors were taken into account, which to one degree or another affect the economy of the state.
One of the factors mentioned is the sanctions imposed by some countries against the Russian Federation. Because of them, the price of raw materials is falling and customs duties are increasing. In view of this, when deflating the deflator index, economists create 3 options for the development of events at once:
- Base. All factors remain unchanged. The sanctions will be the same as in previous years. The same goes for the cost of oil. If we talk about customs duties, they will be at the level of 2018.
- Favorable. Implies the lifting or easing of sanctions and restrictions. In this case, the cost of oil products will increase and customs duties will decrease.
- Target. Poor prognosis. It will be justified if unfavorable factors influence the economy, for example, if sanctions and restrictions are tightened. Oil will fall in price to the lowest possible level, duties, as well as inflation and unemployment, will rise.
It turns out that the deflator index for 2022 from the Ministry of Economic Development shows how the Russian economy will develop when it is affected by various external and internal circumstances.
How to count
The formula for determining the deflator index looks like this:
ID = nominal price / real indicator * 100%.
Take GDP, for example. To obtain it, you need to divide the nominal indicator by the one that is in the current period of time, and translate the result into%, multiplying by 100.
The value calculated in this example will always be generalized, since it displays the dynamics of prices for all goods and services at once.
Forecasted values or what is expected in 2022
The Ministry of Economic Development announces deflator indices for next year in advance. So, the data for 2021 was approved by order of 10/30/2020. An explanatory letter comes with the order. Construction this year received an indicator equal to 105.1, oil - 103.6, agriculture - 103.3, etc.
The document mentioned above indicates deflator indices for 2022 as well. The forecast was approved at a government meeting on September 16, 2020. The approved figures for some areas are shown in the table:
| 2020 | 2021 | 2023 | ||
| Gdp | Nominal volume (in billion rubles) | 106974 | 115533 | 124223 |
| Growth rate (%) | 96,1 | 103,3 | 103,4 | |
| Deflator Index (%) | 101,1 | 104,5 | 104,0 | |
| Agricultural products | Growth rate | 101,0 | 102,1 | 102,1 |
| Deflator index | 99,3 | 102,6 | 103,8 | |
| Retail turnover | Nominal volume | 33313 | 36329 | 38850 |
| Growth rate | 95,8 | 105,1 | 102,9 | |
| Deflator index | 103,4 | 103,8 | 103,9 | |
| Industry | Deflator index | 101,0 | 104,6 | 104,5 |
The figures given indicate how this or that sphere will develop according to the baseline scenario. Therefore, they are not final and may change depending on the circumstances.
Conclusion
So, the deflator index for 2022 from the Ministry of Economic Development will help predict the cost of goods and services consumed by the population, as well as the income of citizens. We are not talking about meticulous calculations of who earns and how much. It's about how much and what people can buy with the money they receive. To date, this indicator has already been approved by a government order not only for the current one, but also for 2022 and 2023.
